Paper
Payments for remotely tasked sabotage are routinely read as evidence of scale — they are better read as a calibration instrument that tells you when a reported transaction was not a purchase at all.
August 4, 2026
Paper
Scenario analysis of maritime coercion as a grey-zone strategy — how cheap, ambiguous attacks on commercial shipping, crews, insurers, and ports can produce disproportionate strategic effects without triggering conventional military responses.
June 21, 2026
Paper
Ukraine's June 21 drone attacks on the Kerch ferry crossing and surrounding ports advance the maritime coercion scenario from Base++ toward a localised early-Worst condition in the Kerch–Crimea logistics corridor.
June 21, 2026